Francis Ngannou vs Jon Jones
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-3-0Record28-1-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'4"
83"Reach84"
257 lbsWeight248 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamJackson-Wink MMA
What's at stake
Jon Jones is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Francis Ngannou carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1859
If they lose-12→ 1827
If they win+9→ 1926
If they lose-15→ 1902
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1746 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1773 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Francis NgannouJon Jones
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jon Jones52%
Francis Ngannou 48%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Jon Jones a 52% favorite over Francis Ngannou in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Jon Jones holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1917 to 1839, a 78-point edge.
Francis Ngannou enters on a 8-fight win streak.
Jon Jones enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Francis Ngannou finishes 95% of wins inside the distance, Jon Jones 64%.
Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones share 2 common opponents: Ciryl Gane and Stipe Miocic.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.