Francis Ngannou vs Junior dos Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-3-0Record23-11-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'4"
83"Reach77"
257 lbsWeight250 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamChampion Team
What's at stake
Francis Ngannou is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Junior dos Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1847
If they lose-24→ 1815
If they win+18→ 1660
If they lose-6→ 1636
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1745 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1694 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Francis NgannouJunior dos Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Francis Ngannou92%
Junior dos Santos 8%Elo baseline: 76%
The Combat Edge model makes Francis Ngannou a 92% favorite over Junior dos Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (76%).
Francis Ngannou holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1839 to 1642, a 197-point edge.
Francis Ngannou enters on a 8-fight win streak.
Junior dos Santos enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Francis Ngannou finishes 95% of wins inside the distance, Junior dos Santos 74%.
Francis Ngannou and Junior dos Santos share 5 common opponents: Ciryl Gane, Stipe Miocic, Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Curtis Blaydes, among 5 in total.
Francis Ngannou carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.