Francis Ngannou vs Sergei Pavlovich
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-3-0Record21-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
83"Reach84"
257 lbsWeight260 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamEagles MMA· 1817 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Francis Ngannou is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Sergei Pavlovich carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1854
If they lose-17→ 1822
If they win+17→ 1826
If they lose-15→ 1794
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1746 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1730 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Francis NgannouSergei Pavlovich
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sergei Pavlovich57%
Francis Ngannou 43%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Sergei Pavlovich a 57% favorite over Francis Ngannou in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Francis Ngannou's way (46%).
Francis Ngannou holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1839 to 1809, a 30-point edge.
Francis Ngannou enters on a 8-fight win streak.
Sergei Pavlovich enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Francis Ngannou finishes 95% of wins inside the distance, Sergei Pavlovich 76%.
Francis Ngannou and Sergei Pavlovich share 3 common opponents: Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.