Combat Edge Intelligence

Francisco Figueiredo vs Jerome Rivera

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-5-1Record10-6-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'10"
68"Reach41,0"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Team FigueiredoTeamDestroya MMA

What's at stake

Francisco Figueiredo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Jerome Rivera carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Francisco FigueiredoNow 1576
If they win+15→ 1591
If they lose-17→ 1559
Jerome RiveraNow 1558
If they win+17→ 1575
If they lose-15→ 1543

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1551 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1566 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.04
Sig. strikes / min
3.21
62%
Strike accuracy
34%
2.59
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.60
62%
Strike defense
52%
2.51
Takedown avg.
0
75%
Takedown accuracy
0%
76%
Takedown defense
40%
0.42
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Francisco FigueiredoJerome Rivera
155016001650202020212022

Win method breakdown

3 (23%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
8 (62%)
Submission
7 (70%)
2 (15%)
Decision
3 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Francisco Figueiredo53%
Jerome Rivera 47%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Francisco Figueiredo a 53% favorite over Jerome Rivera in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Francisco Figueiredo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1576 to 1558, a 18-point edge.

Jerome Rivera enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Francisco Figueiredo finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Jerome Rivera 70%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.