Francisco Prado vs Jake Matthews
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-5-0Record23-8-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'11"
69"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
The Goat Shed Academy· 1666 avg Elo · 8 ratedTeamNexus
What's at stake
Jake Matthews is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Francisco Prado carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1672
If they lose-12→ 1640
If they win+9→ 1760
If they lose-15→ 1736
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1606 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1699 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Francisco PradoJake Matthews
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jake Matthews64%
Francisco Prado 36%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Jake Matthews a 64% favorite over Francisco Prado in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Jake Matthews holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1751 to 1652, a 99-point edge.
Francisco Prado enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Francisco Prado finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Jake Matthews 61%.
Jake Matthews carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.