Combat Edge Intelligence

Francisco Prado vs Justin Burlinson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-5-0Record10-2-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'1"
69"Reach74"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
The Goat Shed Academy· 1666 avg Elo · 8 ratedTeamThe Dungeon BJJ and MMA Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Francisco PradoNow 1652
If they win+16→ 1668
If they lose-16→ 1636
Justin BurlinsonNow 1652
If they win+16→ 1668
If they lose-16→ 1636

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1606 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1534 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.09
Sig. strikes / min
1.24
44%
Strike accuracy
40%
4.95
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.09
55%
Strike defense
62%
0.94
Takedown avg.
0
19%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
50%
Takedown defense
100%
0.47
Submission avg.
9.28

Trajectory

Francisco PradoJustin Burlinson
1600165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (50%)
KO/TKO
2 (20%)
6 (50%)
Submission
8 (80%)
0 (0%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Francisco Prado60%
Justin Burlinson 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Francisco Prado a 60% favorite over Justin Burlinson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1652 vs 1652), separated by just 0 points.

Francisco Prado enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Justin Burlinson enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Francisco Prado finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Justin Burlinson 100%.

Justin Burlinson carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.