Francisco Prado vs Miguel Baeza
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-5-0Record10-4-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'2"
69"Reach74"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
The Goat Shed AcademyTeamMMA Masters
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1668
If they lose-16→ 1636
If they win+16→ 1667
If they lose-16→ 1635
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1608 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1617 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Francisco PradoMiguel Baeza
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Francisco Prado64%
Miguel Baeza 36%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Francisco Prado a 64% favorite over Miguel Baeza in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1652 vs 1651), separated by just 1 points.
Francisco Prado enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Miguel Baeza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Francisco Prado finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Miguel Baeza 80%.
Miguel Baeza carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.