Combat Edge Intelligence

Francisco Prado vs Nikolay Veretennikov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-5-0Record14-8-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'0"
69"Reach 75"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
The Goat Shed AcademyTeamKings MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Francisco PradoNow 1652
If they win+16→ 1668
If they lose-16→ 1636
Nikolay VeretennikovNow 1653
If they win+16→ 1669
If they lose-16→ 1637

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1608 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.09
Sig. strikes / min
2.69
44%
Strike accuracy
57%
4.95
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.30
55%
Strike defense
45%
0.94
Takedown avg.
0.42
19%
Takedown accuracy
17%
50%
Takedown defense
63%
0.47
Submission avg.
0.42

Trajectory

Francisco PradoNikolay Veretennikov
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (50%)
KO/TKO
10 (71%)
6 (50%)
Submission
1 (7%)
0 (0%)
Decision
3 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Francisco Prado51%
Nikolay Veretennikov 49%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Francisco Prado a 51% favorite over Nikolay Veretennikov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Nikolay Veretennikov's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1652 vs 1653), separated by just 1 points.

Francisco Prado enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Francisco Prado finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Nikolay Veretennikov 79%.

Nikolay Veretennikov carries a 6-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.