Combat Edge Intelligence

Francisco Rivera vs Takeya Mizugaki

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-10-0Record23-14-2
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'7"
68,0"Reach68,0"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
All In MMATeamHakkei Gym

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Francisco RiveraNow 1611
If they win+12→ 1623
If they lose-12→ 1599
Takeya MizugakiNow 1608
If they win+12→ 1620
If they lose-12→ 1596

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1586 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1601 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.07
Sig. strikes / min
3.37
41%
Strike accuracy
37%
3.16
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.27
68%
Strike defense
58%
1.01
Takedown avg.
1.46
64%
Takedown accuracy
58%
68%
Takedown defense
70%
0.58
Submission avg.
0.06

Trajectory

Francisco RiveraTakeya Mizugaki
160016502017201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

10 (63%)
KO/TKO
5 (22%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (4%)
6 (38%)
Decision
17 (74%)

Combat Edge model read

Francisco Rivera54%
Takeya Mizugaki 46%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Francisco Rivera a 54% favorite over Takeya Mizugaki in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1611 vs 1608), separated by just 3 points.

Francisco Rivera finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Takeya Mizugaki 26%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.