Francisco Trevino vs Johnny Case
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-3-0Record30-10-1
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'10"
TBDReach72,5"
155 lbsWeight159 lbs
Macaco Gold TeamTeamMMA Lab
What's at stake
Johnny Case is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Francisco Trevino carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1635
If they lose-15→ 1603
If they win+11→ 1644
If they lose-13→ 1620
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1522 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1601 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Francisco TrevinoJohnny Case
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Johnny Case70%
Francisco Trevino 30%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Johnny Case a 70% favorite over Francisco Trevino in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Johnny Case holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1633 to 1618, a 15-point edge.
Francisco Trevino finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Johnny Case 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.