Francisco Trevino vs Johnny Case
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-3-0Record28-10-1
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'10"
TBDReach72,5"
155 lbsWeight159 lbs
Macaco Gold TeamTeamMMA Lab
What's at stake
Johnny Case is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Francisco Trevino carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1640
If they lose-14→ 1608
If they win+11→ 1675
If they lose-13→ 1651
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1532 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1569 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Francisco TrevinoJohnny Case
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Johnny Case57%
Francisco Trevino 43%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Johnny Case a 57% favorite over Francisco Trevino in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Johnny Case holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1664 to 1622, a 42-point edge.
Francisco Trevino finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Johnny Case 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.