Combat Edge Intelligence

Francisco Trevino vs Sage Northcutt

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

13-3-0Record12-3-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'0"
TBDReach71,5"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Macaco Gold TeamTeamTeam Alpha Male

What's at stake

Sage Northcutt is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Francisco Trevino carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Francisco TrevinoNow 1618
If they win+18→ 1636
If they lose-14→ 1604
Sage NorthcuttNow 1663
If they win+14→ 1677
If they lose-18→ 1645

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1522 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1607 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.65
Sig. strikes / min
3.58
42%
Strike accuracy
52%
2.42
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.96
64%
Strike defense
59%
0.97
Takedown avg.
1.81
22%
Takedown accuracy
35%
41%
Takedown defense
42%
0
Submission avg.
0.60

Trajectory

Francisco TrevinoSage Northcutt
1600165017002014201520162017201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

4 (31%)
KO/TKO
5 (42%)
4 (31%)
Submission
4 (33%)
5 (38%)
Decision
3 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Sage Northcutt78%
Francisco Trevino 22%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Sage Northcutt a 78% favorite over Francisco Trevino in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Sage Northcutt holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1663 to 1618, a 45-point edge.

Francisco Trevino finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Sage Northcutt 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.