Combat Edge Intelligence

Francisco Trinaldo vs Gleison Tibau

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-9-0Record38-19-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'10"
70"Reach71,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Brazilian TKOTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Francisco Trinaldo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Gleison Tibau carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Francisco TrinaldoNow 1766
If they win+9→ 1775
If they lose-15→ 1751
Gleison TibauNow 1675
If they win+15→ 1690
If they lose-9→ 1666

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1693 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1622 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.13
Sig. strikes / min
1.95
45%
Strike accuracy
32%
2.67
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.51
61%
Strike defense
63%
0.98
Takedown avg.
4.08
42%
Takedown accuracy
54%
60%
Takedown defense
92%
0.51
Submission avg.
0.83

Trajectory

Francisco TrinaldoGleison Tibau
165017001750180020202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

10 (34%)
KO/TKO
4 (11%)
5 (17%)
Submission
15 (39%)
14 (48%)
Decision
19 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Francisco Trinaldo67%
Gleison Tibau 33%Elo baseline: 63%

The Combat Edge model makes Francisco Trinaldo a 67% favorite over Gleison Tibau in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).

Francisco Trinaldo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1766 to 1675, a 91-point edge.

Francisco Trinaldo finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Gleison Tibau 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.