Francisco Trinaldo vs Gleison Tibau
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-9-0Record40-20-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'10"
70"Reach71"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Brazilian TKO· 1639 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Francisco Trinaldo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Gleison Tibau carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1773
If they lose-16→ 1749
If they win+16→ 1675
If they lose-8→ 1651
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1694 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1612 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Francisco TrinaldoGleison Tibau
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Francisco Trinaldo61%
Gleison Tibau 39%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Francisco Trinaldo a 61% favorite over Gleison Tibau in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Francisco Trinaldo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1765 to 1659, a 106-point edge.
Francisco Trinaldo finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Gleison Tibau 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.