Francisco Trinaldo vs Jesse Ronson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
29-9-0Record28-12-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'10"
70"Reach70"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Brazilian TKOTeamAdrenaline Training Center
What's at stake
Francisco Trinaldo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Jesse Ronson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1775
If they lose-15→ 1751
If they win+15→ 1686
If they lose-9→ 1662
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1693 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1580 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Francisco TrinaldoJesse Ronson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Francisco Trinaldo62%
Jesse Ronson 38%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Francisco Trinaldo a 62% favorite over Jesse Ronson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Francisco Trinaldo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1766 to 1671, a 95-point edge.
Jesse Ronson enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Francisco Trinaldo finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Jesse Ronson 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.