Francisco Trinaldo vs John Makdessi
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-9-0Record18-9-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'8"
70"Reach68"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Brazilian TKOTeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
Francisco Trinaldo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — John Makdessi carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1774
If they lose-16→ 1750
If they win+21→ 1667
If they lose-11→ 1635
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1693 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1647 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Francisco TrinaldoJohn Makdessi
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Francisco Trinaldo64%
John Makdessi 36%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Francisco Trinaldo a 64% favorite over John Makdessi in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Francisco Trinaldo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1766 to 1646, a 120-point edge.
John Makdessi enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Francisco Trinaldo finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, John Makdessi 50%.
Francisco Trinaldo carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.