Francisco Trinaldo vs King Green
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-9-0Record36-17-1
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'10"
70"Reach71″
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Brazilian TKO· 1650 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamPinnacle MMA
What's at stake
Francisco Trinaldo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — King Green carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1777
If they lose-13→ 1753
If they win+13→ 1736
If they lose-11→ 1712
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1694 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1695 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Francisco TrinaldoKing Green
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
King Green52%
Francisco Trinaldo 48%Elo baseline: 44%
The Combat Edge model makes King Green a 52% favorite over Francisco Trinaldo in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Francisco Trinaldo's way (44%).
Francisco Trinaldo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1766 to 1723, a 43-point edge.
King Green enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Francisco Trinaldo finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, King Green 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.