Combat Edge Intelligence

Francisco Trinaldo vs Lorenz Larkin

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-9-0Record27-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'11"
70"Reach73"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Brazilian TKOTeamMillennia MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Francisco TrinaldoNow 1766
If they win+12→ 1778
If they lose-12→ 1754
Lorenz LarkinNow 1766
If they win+12→ 1778
If they lose-12→ 1754

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1693 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1640 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.13
Sig. strikes / min
3.53
45%
Strike accuracy
46%
2.67
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.74
61%
Strike defense
64%
0.98
Takedown avg.
0.27
42%
Takedown accuracy
43%
60%
Takedown defense
79%
0.51
Submission avg.
0.09

Trajectory

Francisco TrinaldoLorenz Larkin
1750180020202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

10 (34%)
KO/TKO
15 (56%)
5 (17%)
Submission
0 (0%)
14 (48%)
Decision
12 (44%)

Combat Edge model read

Lorenz Larkin58%
Francisco Trinaldo 42%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Lorenz Larkin a 58% favorite over Francisco Trinaldo in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Francisco Trinaldo's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1766 vs 1766), separated by just 0 points.

Lorenz Larkin enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Francisco Trinaldo finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Lorenz Larkin 56%.

Lorenz Larkin carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.