Francisco Trinaldo vs Michael Chiesa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-9-0Record20-7-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height6'1"
70"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Brazilian TKOTeamSikjitsu
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1778
If they lose-12→ 1754
If they win+12→ 1770
If they lose-12→ 1746
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1693 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1710 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Francisco TrinaldoMichael Chiesa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Michael Chiesa72%
Francisco Trinaldo 28%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Michael Chiesa a 72% favorite over Francisco Trinaldo in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Francisco Trinaldo's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1766 vs 1758), separated by just 8 points.
Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Francisco Trinaldo finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Michael Chiesa 65%.
Michael Chiesa carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.