Francisco Trinaldo vs Mike Rio
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-9-0Record10-5-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'10"
70"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Brazilian TKO· 1639 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamZen Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
Francisco Trinaldo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Mike Rio carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+6→ 1771
If they lose-18→ 1747
If they win+24→ 1593
If they lose-8→ 1561
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1694 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1555 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Francisco TrinaldoMike Rio
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Francisco Trinaldo69%
Mike Rio 31%Elo baseline: 76%
The Combat Edge model makes Francisco Trinaldo a 69% favorite over Mike Rio in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (76%).
Francisco Trinaldo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1765 to 1569, a 196-point edge.
Francisco Trinaldo finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Mike Rio 90%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.