Francisco Trinaldo vs Paul Felder
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-9-0Record17-6-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'10"
70"Reach70,5"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Brazilian TKO· 1639 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamRoufusport· 1685 avg Elo · 8 rated
What's at stake
Francisco Trinaldo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Paul Felder carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1776
If they lose-13→ 1752
If they win+13→ 1747
If they lose-11→ 1723
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1694 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1666 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Francisco TrinaldoPaul Felder
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paul Felder54%
Francisco Trinaldo 46%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Paul Felder a 54% favorite over Francisco Trinaldo in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Francisco Trinaldo's way (46%).
Francisco Trinaldo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1765 to 1734, a 31-point edge.
Paul Felder enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Francisco Trinaldo finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Paul Felder 65%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.