Francisco Trinaldo vs Randy Brown
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-9-0Record20-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height6'3"
70"Reach78"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Brazilian TKOTeamBudokan Martial Arts Academy
What's at stake
Francisco Trinaldo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Randy Brown carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1777
If they lose-13→ 1753
If they win+13→ 1755
If they lose-11→ 1731
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1693 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1728 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Francisco TrinaldoRandy Brown
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Randy Brown63%
Francisco Trinaldo 37%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Randy Brown a 63% favorite over Francisco Trinaldo in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Francisco Trinaldo's way (47%).
Francisco Trinaldo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1766 to 1742, a 24-point edge.
Randy Brown enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Francisco Trinaldo finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Randy Brown 65%.
Francisco Trinaldo and Randy Brown share 1 common opponent: Muslim Salikhov.
Randy Brown carries a 8-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.