Combat Edge Intelligence

Francisco Trinaldo vs Yancy Medeiros

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-9-0Record16-9-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'10"
70"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight165 lbs
Brazilian TKOTeamTeam Hakuilua

What's at stake

Francisco Trinaldo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Yancy Medeiros carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Francisco TrinaldoNow 1766
If they win+7→ 1773
If they lose-17→ 1749
Yancy MedeirosNow 1610
If they win+23→ 1633
If they lose-9→ 1601

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1693 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.13
Sig. strikes / min
4.36
45%
Strike accuracy
37%
2.67
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.67
61%
Strike defense
47%
0.98
Takedown avg.
0.33
42%
Takedown accuracy
17%
60%
Takedown defense
74%
0.51
Submission avg.
0.65

Trajectory

Francisco TrinaldoYancy Medeiros
1600165017001750180020202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

10 (34%)
KO/TKO
8 (50%)
5 (17%)
Submission
4 (25%)
14 (48%)
Decision
4 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Francisco Trinaldo75%
Yancy Medeiros 25%Elo baseline: 71%

The Combat Edge model makes Francisco Trinaldo a 75% favorite over Yancy Medeiros in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).

Francisco Trinaldo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1766 to 1610, a 156-point edge.

Francisco Trinaldo finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Yancy Medeiros 75%.

Yancy Medeiros carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.