Combat Edge Intelligence

Frank Mir vs Junior dos Santos

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-13-0Record23-11-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'4"
79"Reach77"
262 lbsWeight250 lbs
Frank Mir GymTeamChampion Team

What's at stake

Junior dos Santos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Frank Mir carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Frank MirNow 1620
If they win+13→ 1633
If they lose-11→ 1609
Junior dos SantosNow 1642
If they win+11→ 1653
If they lose-13→ 1629

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1704 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1694 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.18
Sig. strikes / min
4.49
47%
Strike accuracy
48%
3.84
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.33
39%
Strike defense
56%
2.02
Takedown avg.
0.30
40%
Takedown accuracy
50%
55%
Takedown defense
82%
2.02
Submission avg.
0.06

Trajectory

Frank MirJunior dos Santos
1600165020192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (28%)
KO/TKO
16 (70%)
9 (50%)
Submission
1 (4%)
4 (22%)
Decision
6 (26%)

Combat Edge model read

Junior dos Santos66%
Frank Mir 34%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Junior dos Santos a 66% favorite over Frank Mir in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Junior dos Santos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1642 to 1620, a 22-point edge.

Junior dos Santos enters on a 6-fight loss streak.

Frank Mir finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Junior dos Santos 74%.

Frank Mir carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.