Frank Mir vs Roy Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-13-0Record24-20-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'0"
79"Reach72,0"
262 lbsWeight249 lbs
Frank Mir GymTeamCountry Club
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1632
If they lose-12→ 1608
If they win+12→ 1638
If they lose-12→ 1614
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1704 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1669 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Frank MirRoy Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Frank Mir58%
Roy Nelson 42%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Frank Mir a 58% favorite over Roy Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Roy Nelson's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1620 vs 1626), separated by just 6 points.
Roy Nelson enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Frank Mir finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Roy Nelson 83%.
Frank Mir and Roy Nelson share 2 common opponents: Javy Ayala and Antonio Silva.
Frank Mir carries a 7-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (2)
LossTKO (submission to punches) · 2018
Win Decision · 2017