Combat Edge Intelligence

Frank Mir vs Shane Carwin

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-13-0Record12-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
79"ReachTBD
262 lbsWeight254 lbs
Frank Mir GymTeamGrudge Training Center

What's at stake

Shane Carwin is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Frank Mir carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Frank MirNow 1620
If they win+14→ 1634
If they lose-10→ 1610
Shane CarwinNow 1672
If they win+14→ 1686
If they lose-18→ 1654

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1704 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1563 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.18
Sig. strikes / min
4.38
47%
Strike accuracy
47%
3.84
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.53
39%
Strike defense
54%
2.02
Takedown avg.
1.42
40%
Takedown accuracy
33%
55%
Takedown defense
43%
2.02
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Frank MirShane Carwin
16001650170020092010201120122013201420152016201720182019

Win method breakdown

5 (28%)
KO/TKO
8 (67%)
9 (50%)
Submission
4 (33%)
4 (22%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Shane Carwin64%
Frank Mir 36%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Shane Carwin a 64% favorite over Frank Mir in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Shane Carwin holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1672 to 1620, a 52-point edge.

Frank Mir finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Shane Carwin 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.