Frank Trigg vs Matt Serra
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-9-0Record11-7-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'6"
TBDReach68"
181 lbsWeight170 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamSerra-Longo Fight Team
What's at stake
Frank Trigg is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Matt Serra carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1696
If they lose-15→ 1672
If they win+20→ 1625
If they lose-12→ 1593
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1628 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1659 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Frank TriggMatt Serra
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Frank Trigg60%
Matt Serra 40%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Frank Trigg a 60% favorite over Matt Serra in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Frank Trigg holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1687 to 1605, a 82-point edge.
Frank Trigg finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Matt Serra 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.