Combat Edge Intelligence

Frankie Edgar vs Hermes Franca

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-11-1Record26-20-0
BantamweightDivisionWelterweight
5'6"Height5'6"
68"ReachTBD
136 lbsWeight170 lbs
Ricardo Almeida Jiu-JitsuTeamVictory MMA

What's at stake

Frankie Edgar is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Hermes Franca carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Frankie EdgarNow 1692
If they win+7→ 1699
If they lose-17→ 1675
Hermes FrancaNow 1549
If they win+17→ 1566
If they lose-7→ 1542

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1719 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1497 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.77
Sig. strikes / min
1.78
40%
Strike accuracy
40%
2.82
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.85
66%
Strike defense
55%
2.29
Takedown avg.
1.53
29%
Takedown accuracy
36%
66%
Takedown defense
38%
0.31
Submission avg.
2.38

Trajectory

Frankie EdgarHermes Franca
1550160016501700175020182019202020212022

Win method breakdown

7 (29%)
KO/TKO
8 (31%)
4 (17%)
Submission
15 (58%)
13 (54%)
Decision
3 (12%)

Combat Edge model read

Frankie Edgar83%
Hermes Franca 17%Elo baseline: 69%

The Combat Edge model makes Frankie Edgar a 83% favorite over Hermes Franca in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).

Frankie Edgar holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1692 to 1549, a 143-point edge.

Frankie Edgar enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Hermes Franca enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Frankie Edgar finishes 46% of wins inside the distance, Hermes Franca 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.