Frankie Edgar vs Jeremy Stephens
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-11-1Record29-23-0
BantamweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"Height5'9"
68"Reach71"
136 lbsWeight155 lbs
Ricardo Almeida Jiu-JitsuTeamAlliance MMA
What's at stake
Frankie Edgar is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Jeremy Stephens carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1699
If they lose-17→ 1675
If they win+17→ 1568
If they lose-7→ 1544
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1719 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1684 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Frankie EdgarJeremy Stephens
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Frankie Edgar70%
Jeremy Stephens 30%Elo baseline: 69%
The Combat Edge model makes Frankie Edgar a 70% favorite over Jeremy Stephens in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).
Frankie Edgar holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1692 to 1551, a 141-point edge.
Frankie Edgar enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Jeremy Stephens enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Frankie Edgar finishes 46% of wins inside the distance, Jeremy Stephens 72%.
Frankie Edgar and Jeremy Stephens share 1 common opponent: Yair Rodriguez.
Jeremy Stephens carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.