Combat Edge Intelligence

Frankie Edgar vs Michael McDonald

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-11-1Record19-4-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'8"
68"Reach70,0"
136 lbsWeight136 lbs
Ricardo Almeida Jiu-JitsuTeamLast Stand Fight Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Frankie EdgarNow 1692
If they win+12→ 1704
If they lose-12→ 1680
Michael McDonaldNow 1691
If they win+12→ 1703
If they lose-12→ 1679

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1720 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1614 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.77
Sig. strikes / min
2.69
40%
Strike accuracy
43%
2.82
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.76
66%
Strike defense
57%
2.29
Takedown avg.
1.09
29%
Takedown accuracy
67%
66%
Takedown defense
52%
0.31
Submission avg.
1.45

Trajectory

Frankie EdgarMichael McDonald
170017502020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (29%)
KO/TKO
10 (53%)
4 (17%)
Submission
6 (32%)
13 (54%)
Decision
3 (16%)

Combat Edge model read

Michael McDonald70%
Frankie Edgar 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Michael McDonald a 70% favorite over Frankie Edgar in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Frankie Edgar's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1692 vs 1691), separated by just 1 points.

Frankie Edgar enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Michael McDonald enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Frankie Edgar finishes 46% of wins inside the distance, Michael McDonald 84%.

Michael McDonald carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.