Combat Edge Intelligence

Fraser Paterson vs Kalib Starnes

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

2-0-0Record17-11-1
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'3"
-ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
GriphouseTeamAegis Athletics

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Fraser PatersonNow 1564
If they win+24→ 1588
If they lose-24→ 1540
Kalib StarnesNow 1562
If they win+12→ 1574
If they lose-12→ 1550

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1557 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1579 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.71
TBD
Strike accuracy
49%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.43
TBD
Strike defense
53%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.46
TBD
Takedown accuracy
33%
TBD
Takedown defense
25%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.59

Trajectory

Fraser PatersonKalib Starnes
155016002014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (50%)
KO/TKO
5 (29%)
1 (50%)
Submission
10 (59%)
0 (0%)
Decision
2 (12%)

Combat Edge model read

Fraser Paterson84%
Kalib Starnes 16%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Fraser Paterson a 84% favorite over Kalib Starnes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1564 vs 1562), separated by just 2 points.

Fraser Paterson enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Kalib Starnes 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.