Combat Edge Intelligence

Fredson Paixao vs Ricky Turcios

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-5-0Record12-6-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'8"
TBDReach71"
145 lbsWeight135 lbs
Syndicate MMATeamTeam Alpha Male

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Fredson PaixaoNow 1593
If they win+16→ 1609
If they lose-16→ 1577
Ricky TurciosNow 1592
If they win+16→ 1608
If they lose-16→ 1576

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1579 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1597 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.71
Sig. strikes / min
4.73
55%
Strike accuracy
40%
2.31
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.72
62%
Strike defense
52%
0.62
Takedown avg.
0.91
11%
Takedown accuracy
20%
10%
Takedown defense
44%
2.16
Submission avg.
0.36

Trajectory

Fredson PaixaoRicky Turcios
160016502011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (10%)
KO/TKO
3 (25%)
5 (50%)
Submission
1 (8%)
4 (40%)
Decision
8 (67%)

Combat Edge model read

Ricky Turcios61%
Fredson Paixao 39%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Ricky Turcios a 61% favorite over Fredson Paixao in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Fredson Paixao's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1593 vs 1592), separated by just 1 points.

Fredson Paixao enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Ricky Turcios enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Fredson Paixao finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Ricky Turcios 33%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.