Combat Edge Intelligence

Fredy Serrano vs Hector Sandoval

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

4-2-0Record15-4-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'2"Height5'2"
65,0"Reach36,0"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
MMA ColombiaTeamTeam Alpha Male

What's at stake

Hector Sandoval is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Fredy Serrano carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Fredy SerranoNow 1581
If they win+30→ 1611
If they lose-18→ 1563
Hector SandovalNow 1670
If they win+12→ 1682
If they lose-20→ 1650

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1545 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1549 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.58
Sig. strikes / min
3.31
27%
Strike accuracy
52%
1.89
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.33
62%
Strike defense
66%
2.84
Takedown avg.
3.49
25%
Takedown accuracy
25%
85%
Takedown defense
71%
0
Submission avg.
1.40

Trajectory

Fredy SerranoHector Sandoval
1550160016502016201720182019

Win method breakdown

2 (67%)
KO/TKO
4 (27%)
0 (0%)
Submission
2 (13%)
1 (33%)
Decision
9 (60%)

Combat Edge model read

Hector Sandoval75%
Fredy Serrano 25%Elo baseline: 63%

The Combat Edge model makes Hector Sandoval a 75% favorite over Fredy Serrano in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).

Hector Sandoval holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1670 to 1581, a 89-point edge.

Hector Sandoval enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Fredy Serrano finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Hector Sandoval 40%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.