Combat Edge Intelligence

Fredy Serrano vs Pedro Nobre

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

4-2-0Record22-7-2
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'2"Height5'5"
65,0"ReachTBD
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
MMA ColombiaTeamBrazilian Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Fredy SerranoNow 1581
If they win+24→ 1605
If they lose-24→ 1557
Pedro NobreNow 1587
If they win+12→ 1599
If they lose-12→ 1575

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1545 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1547 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.58
Sig. strikes / min
1.37
27%
Strike accuracy
30%
1.89
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
9.16
62%
Strike defense
35%
2.84
Takedown avg.
0
25%
Takedown accuracy
0%
85%
Takedown defense
0%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Fredy SerranoPedro Nobre
155016002016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

2 (67%)
KO/TKO
12 (55%)
0 (0%)
Submission
6 (27%)
1 (33%)
Decision
4 (18%)

Combat Edge model read

Fredy Serrano52%
Pedro Nobre 48%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Fredy Serrano a 52% favorite over Pedro Nobre in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Pedro Nobre's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1581 vs 1587), separated by just 6 points.

Fredy Serrano finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Pedro Nobre 82%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.