Combat Edge Intelligence

Gabe Ruediger vs Joe Lauzon

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Joe Lauzon
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Joe Lauzon

“J-Lau”

28-15-0LightweightUFC

1649Solid

Tale of the tape

18-8-0Record28-15-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
PKGTeamLauzon MMA

What's at stake

Joe Lauzon is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Gabe Ruediger carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gabe RuedigerNow 1592
If they win+19→ 1611
If they lose-13→ 1579
Joe LauzonNow 1649
If they win+10→ 1659
If they lose-14→ 1635

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1532 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1669 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.70
Sig. strikes / min
2.84
31%
Strike accuracy
40%
5.16
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.39
41%
Strike defense
55%
2.04
Takedown avg.
2.39
11%
Takedown accuracy
45%
29%
Takedown defense
55%
0
Submission avg.
2.04

Trajectory

Gabe RuedigerJoe Lauzon
160016501700201120122013201420152016201720182019

Win method breakdown

4 (22%)
KO/TKO
9 (32%)
13 (72%)
Submission
17 (61%)
1 (6%)
Decision
2 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Joe Lauzon68%
Gabe Ruediger 32%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Joe Lauzon a 68% favorite over Gabe Ruediger in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Joe Lauzon holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1649 to 1592, a 57-point edge.

Gabe Ruediger finishes 94% of wins inside the distance, Joe Lauzon 93%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.