Gabe Ruediger vs Melvin Guillard
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-8-0Record32-22-2
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'9"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
PKGTeamGenesis Training Center
What's at stake
Gabe Ruediger is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Melvin Guillard carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1605
If they lose-19→ 1573
If they win+14→ 1535
If they lose-10→ 1511
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1532 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1608 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gabe RuedigerMelvin Guillard
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gabe Ruediger64%
Melvin Guillard 36%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Gabe Ruediger a 64% favorite over Melvin Guillard in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Gabe Ruediger holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1592 to 1521, a 71-point edge.
Melvin Guillard enters on a 10-fight loss streak.
Gabe Ruediger finishes 94% of wins inside the distance, Melvin Guillard 72%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.