Combat Edge Intelligence

Gabriel Benítez vs Justin Jaynes

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-12-0Record17-11-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'8"
71"Reach68"
155 lbsWeight159 lbs
American Kickboxing AcademyTeamXtreme Couture

What's at stake

Gabriel Benítez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Justin Jaynes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gabriel BenítezNow 1584
If they win+11→ 1595
If they lose-13→ 1571
Justin JaynesNow 1553
If they win+13→ 1566
If they lose-11→ 1542

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1639 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1591 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.26
Sig. strikes / min
3.34
42%
Strike accuracy
44%
4.49
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.33
64%
Strike defense
63%
0.22
Takedown avg.
0.75
50%
Takedown accuracy
40%
56%
Takedown defense
20%
0.86
Submission avg.
1.12

Trajectory

Gabriel BenítezJustin Jaynes
15501600202220232024

Win method breakdown

9 (39%)
KO/TKO
8 (50%)
10 (43%)
Submission
6 (38%)
4 (17%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Justin Jaynes53%
Gabriel Benítez 47%Elo baseline: 46%

The Combat Edge model makes Justin Jaynes a 53% favorite over Gabriel Benítez in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gabriel Benítez's way (46%).

Gabriel Benítez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1584 to 1553, a 31-point edge.

Gabriel Benítez enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Gabriel Benítez finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Justin Jaynes 88%.

Gabriel Benítez carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.