Gabriel Bonfim vs Matt Hughes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-1-0Record45-9-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'9"
72″Reach73"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Cerrado MMATeamHIT Squad
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1825
If they lose-16→ 1793
If they win+12→ 1819
If they lose-12→ 1795
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1690 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1642 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gabriel BonfimMatt Hughes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gabriel Bonfim79%
Matt Hughes 21%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Gabriel Bonfim a 79% favorite over Matt Hughes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1809 vs 1807), separated by just 2 points.
Gabriel Bonfim enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Matt Hughes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Gabriel Bonfim finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Matt Hughes 78%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.