Gabriel Gonzaga vs Josh Hendricks
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-12-0Record19-11-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
42,0"ReachTBD
264 lbsWeight259 lbs
Team LinkTeamSuperior Health Club
What's at stake
Gabriel Gonzaga is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Josh Hendricks carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1620
If they lose-16→ 1596
If they win+21→ 1520
If they lose-11→ 1488
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1682 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1506 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gabriel GonzagaJosh Hendricks
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gabriel Gonzaga78%
Josh Hendricks 22%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Gabriel Gonzaga a 78% favorite over Josh Hendricks in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Gabriel Gonzaga holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1612 to 1499, a 113-point edge.
Gabriel Gonzaga enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Josh Hendricks enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Gabriel Gonzaga finishes 94% of wins inside the distance, Josh Hendricks 89%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.