Gabriel Gonzaga vs Junior dos Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-12-0Record23-11-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'4"
42,0"Reach77"
264 lbsWeight250 lbs
Team LinkTeamChampion Team
What's at stake
Junior dos Santos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Gabriel Gonzaga carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1625
If they lose-11→ 1601
If they win+11→ 1654
If they lose-13→ 1630
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1683 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1695 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Gabriel GonzagaJunior dos Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Junior dos Santos65%
Gabriel Gonzaga 35%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Junior dos Santos a 65% favorite over Gabriel Gonzaga in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Junior dos Santos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1643 to 1612, a 31-point edge.
Gabriel Gonzaga enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Junior dos Santos enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Gabriel Gonzaga finishes 94% of wins inside the distance, Junior dos Santos 74%.
Gabriel Gonzaga and Junior dos Santos share 2 common opponents: Derrick Lewis and Stipe Miocic.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.