Gabriel Gonzaga vs Justin McCully
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-12-0Record11-5-2
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
42,0"ReachTBD
264 lbsWeight235 lbs
Team LinkTeamTeam Punishment
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1624
If they lose-12→ 1600
If they win+17→ 1616
If they lose-15→ 1584
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1682 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1521 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gabriel GonzagaJustin McCully
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gabriel Gonzaga54%
Justin McCully 46%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Gabriel Gonzaga a 54% favorite over Justin McCully in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1612 vs 1599), separated by just 13 points.
Gabriel Gonzaga enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Justin McCully enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Gabriel Gonzaga finishes 94% of wins inside the distance, Justin McCully 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.