Gabriel Gonzaga vs Matt Mitrione
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-12-0Record13-9-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'3"
42,0"Reach43,0"
264 lbsWeight255 lbs
Team LinkTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Matt Mitrione is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Gabriel Gonzaga carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1625
If they lose-11→ 1601
If they win+15→ 1647
If they lose-17→ 1615
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1682 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1707 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gabriel GonzagaMatt Mitrione
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gabriel Gonzaga51%
Matt Mitrione 49%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Gabriel Gonzaga a 51% favorite over Matt Mitrione in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Matt Mitrione's way (47%).
Matt Mitrione holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1632 to 1612, a 20-point edge.
Gabriel Gonzaga enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Matt Mitrione enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Gabriel Gonzaga finishes 94% of wins inside the distance, Matt Mitrione 85%.
Gabriel Gonzaga and Matt Mitrione share 2 common opponents: Travis Browne and Ben Rothwell.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.