Gabriel Gonzaga vs Mukhamad Vakhaev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-12-0Record13-9-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'0"
42,0"Reach-
264 lbsWeight266 lbs
Team LinkTeamFight Club Akhmat
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1624
If they lose-12→ 1600
If they win+16→ 1625
If they lose-16→ 1593
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1682 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1626 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gabriel GonzagaMukhamad Vakhaev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mukhamad Vakhaev52%
Gabriel Gonzaga 48%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Mukhamad Vakhaev a 52% favorite over Gabriel Gonzaga in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gabriel Gonzaga's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1612 vs 1609), separated by just 3 points.
Gabriel Gonzaga enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Mukhamad Vakhaev enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Gabriel Gonzaga finishes 94% of wins inside the distance, Mukhamad Vakhaev 85%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.