Combat Edge Intelligence

Gabriel Gonzaga vs Shane Carwin

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-12-0Record12-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
42,0"ReachTBD
264 lbsWeight254 lbs
Team LinkTeamGrudge Training Center

What's at stake

Shane Carwin is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Gabriel Gonzaga carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gabriel GonzagaNow 1612
If they win+14→ 1626
If they lose-10→ 1602
Shane CarwinNow 1672
If they win+13→ 1685
If they lose-19→ 1653

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1682 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1563 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.12
Sig. strikes / min
4.38
45%
Strike accuracy
47%
2.94
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.53
57%
Strike defense
54%
2.80
Takedown avg.
1.42
39%
Takedown accuracy
33%
67%
Takedown defense
43%
1.10
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Gabriel GonzagaShane Carwin
1600165017002009201020112012201320142015201620172018

Win method breakdown

9 (53%)
KO/TKO
8 (67%)
7 (41%)
Submission
4 (33%)
1 (6%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Shane Carwin60%
Gabriel Gonzaga 40%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes Shane Carwin a 60% favorite over Gabriel Gonzaga in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

Shane Carwin holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1672 to 1612, a 60-point edge.

Gabriel Gonzaga enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Gabriel Gonzaga finishes 94% of wins inside the distance, Shane Carwin 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.