Gabriel Gonzaga vs Stipe Miocic
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-12-0Record20-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'4"
42,0"Reach 80"
264 lbsWeight234 lbs
Team LinkTeamStrong Style Fight Team
What's at stake
Stipe Miocic is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Gabriel Gonzaga carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1629
If they lose-7→ 1605
If they win+9→ 1774
If they lose-23→ 1742
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1682 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1802 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gabriel GonzagaStipe Miocic
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Stipe Miocic83%
Gabriel Gonzaga 17%Elo baseline: 71%
The Combat Edge model makes Stipe Miocic a 83% favorite over Gabriel Gonzaga in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).
Stipe Miocic holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1765 to 1612, a 153-point edge.
Gabriel Gonzaga enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Stipe Miocic enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Gabriel Gonzaga finishes 94% of wins inside the distance, Stipe Miocic 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.