Gabriel Lourenço vs Junior dos Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-1-0Record23-11-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'4"
-Reach77"
265 lbsWeight250 lbs
Chute Boxe· 1677 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamChampion Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1661
If they lose-24→ 1613
If they win+12→ 1654
If they lose-12→ 1630
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1494 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1694 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gabriel LourençoJunior dos Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Junior dos Santos52%
Gabriel Lourenço 48%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Junior dos Santos a 52% favorite over Gabriel Lourenço in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1637 vs 1642), separated by just 5 points.
Gabriel Lourenço enters on a 7-fight win streak.
Junior dos Santos enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Gabriel Lourenço finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Junior dos Santos 74%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.