Gabriel Lourenço vs Steven Asplund
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-1-0Record8-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'5"
-Reach78"
265 lbsWeight261 lbs
Chute Boxe· 1678 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamMcCune's Martial Arts
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1661
If they lose-24→ 1613
If they win+16→ 1660
If they lose-16→ 1628
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1494 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1545 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gabriel LourençoSteven Asplund
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Steven Asplund63%
Gabriel Lourenço 37%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Steven Asplund a 63% favorite over Gabriel Lourenço in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1637 vs 1644), separated by just 7 points.
Gabriel Lourenço enters on a 7-fight win streak.
Gabriel Lourenço finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Steven Asplund 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.