Gabriel Lourenço vs Mohammed Usman
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-1-0Record11-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
-Reach79"
265 lbsWeight237 lbs
Chute Boxe· 1677 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamWar Room Kickboxing & MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1661
If they lose-24→ 1613
If they win+16→ 1654
If they lose-16→ 1622
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1494 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1576 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gabriel LourençoMohammed Usman
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gabriel Lourenço57%
Mohammed Usman 43%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Gabriel Lourenço a 57% favorite over Mohammed Usman in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mohammed Usman's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1637 vs 1638), separated by just 1 points.
Gabriel Lourenço enters on a 7-fight win streak.
Gabriel Lourenço finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Mohammed Usman 55%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.