Gabriel Lourenço vs Rob Broughton
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-1-0Record16-7-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
-ReachTBD
265 lbsWeight258 lbs
Chute Boxe· 1678 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamAtherton Submission Wrestling
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1661
If they lose-24→ 1613
If they win+12→ 1654
If they lose-12→ 1630
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1494 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1538 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gabriel LourençoRob Broughton
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gabriel Lourenço55%
Rob Broughton 45%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Gabriel Lourenço a 55% favorite over Rob Broughton in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rob Broughton's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1637 vs 1642), separated by just 5 points.
Gabriel Lourenço enters on a 7-fight win streak.
Gabriel Lourenço finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Rob Broughton 81%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.