Gabriel Santos vs Lerone Murphy
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-2-0Record17-1-1
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'10"
70"Reach73"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Brazilian TKOTeamManchester Top Team
What's at stake
Lerone Murphy is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Gabriel Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1699
If they lose-11→ 1667
If they win+11→ 1802
If they lose-21→ 1770
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1666 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1704 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gabriel SantosLerone Murphy
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lerone Murphy75%
Gabriel Santos 25%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Lerone Murphy a 75% favorite over Gabriel Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Lerone Murphy holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1791 to 1678, a 113-point edge.
Gabriel Santos enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Gabriel Santos finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Lerone Murphy 47%.
Lerone Murphy carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.