Combat Edge Intelligence

Gabriel Santos vs Mirsad Bektić

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-2-0Record13-4-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'8"
70"Reach70"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Brazilian TKOTeamTristar Gym

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Gabriel SantosNow 1678
If they win+16→ 1694
If they lose-16→ 1662
Mirsad BektićNow 1677
If they win+16→ 1693
If they lose-16→ 1661

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1666 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1659 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.69
Sig. strikes / min
2.43
60%
Strike accuracy
42%
4.77
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.80
48%
Strike defense
58%
3.44
Takedown avg.
3.98
53%
Takedown accuracy
53%
86%
Takedown defense
92%
0.77
Submission avg.
0.44

Trajectory

Gabriel SantosMirsad Bektić
16001650170017502019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

3 (25%)
KO/TKO
6 (46%)
5 (42%)
Submission
3 (23%)
4 (33%)
Decision
4 (31%)

Combat Edge model read

Gabriel Santos52%
Mirsad Bektić 48%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Gabriel Santos a 52% favorite over Mirsad Bektić in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1678 vs 1677), separated by just 1 points.

Gabriel Santos enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Mirsad Bektić enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Gabriel Santos finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Mirsad Bektić 69%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.