Garcia Kinkela vs Sayed Safarmamadov
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Sayed Safarmamadov57%
Garcia Kinkela 43%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Sayed Safarmamadov a 57% favorite over Garcia Kinkela in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Garcia Kinkela's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1554 vs 1554), separated by just 0 points.
Garcia Kinkela enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Sayed Safarmamadov enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Sayed Safarmamadov 60%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
2-0-0Record5-3-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"HeightTBD
TBDReach-
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Angolan Top TeamTeam
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1578
If they lose-24→ 1530
If they win+24→ 1578
If they lose-24→ 1530
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1519 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1498 · 8 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Garcia KinkelaSayed Safarmamadov